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Matthew Green: “A 15% chance we functionally lose confidence in our existing public-key encryption algorithms”

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· Cybersecurity · a cryptographer on AI possibly breaking encryption faster than humans can replace standards; the numbers, he says, are “based on vibes”

original

“I think there is a 1% chance we live in Minicrypt, and a 15% chance we functionally lose confidence in our existing public-key encryption algorithms. […] The problem here is that the speed of AI producing surprises, and the speed of human beings replacing standards (even with the very best AI assistance) are just orders of magnitude different.”

— Matthew Green, X, 09.10.2026 ↗

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The original is given verbatim and only as an excerpt — as much as the meaning needs; “[…]” marks a cut. The translation is ours.

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