杰克·克拉克: “AI 正在变得有创造力——无论是在数学上还是在 AI 研究本身，因此完全的递归自我改进如今更可能在 2027 年而不是 2028 年成为可能”

由 AI 翻译，经编辑部审校

原文

“Why this matters – RSI: In my analysis of recursive self-improvement (AI Systems Are About To Start Building Themselves, Import AI 455), I repeatedly noted that creativity seemed like a key variable for how fast AI systems could develop the capacity to improve themselves. At the beginning of this year I said "AI systems haven't yet displayed this [creativity] in a transformative and major way (though some of the results on accelerating math research are suggestive of this)". I think subsequent to writing that we've seen both a tremendous advancement in the ability for AI systems to make creative-seeming math breakthroughs, and with benchmarks like this we see some signs they're becoming increasingly good at AI research as well. I now think it's more likely we'll see full RSI become possible in 2027, whereas before I thought it was more likely in 2028.”

— 杰克·克拉克, Import AI 476, 12.10.2026 ↗

译文

“为什么重要——递归自我改进：在我对递归自我改进的分析（《AI 系统即将开始构建自己》，Import AI 455）中，我多次指出，创造力似乎是决定 AI 系统多快获得自我改进能力的关键变量。今年年初我写道：“AI 系统尚未以变革性的重大方式展现出这一点[创造力]（尽管加速数学研究的一些成果暗示了这一点）。”我认为，从那以后，我们既看到 AI 系统做出看似富有创造性的数学突破的能力大幅进步，也借助这样的基准看到一些迹象，表明它们在 AI 研究上也越来越擅长。我现在认为，完全的递归自我改进更可能在 2027 年成为可能，而此前我认为更可能是在 2028 年。”