安德烈·卡帕西: “与其说是“智能体之年”，不如说是“智能体的十年”：早期智能体非常惊艳，他每天都在用，但作为员工它们“就是不管用”——解决这些问题大约需要十年”

由 AI 翻译，经编辑部审校

原文

“The quote you’ve just mentioned, “It’s the decade of agents,” is actually a reaction to a pre-existing quote. I’m not actually sure who said this but they were alluding to this being the year of agents with respect to LLMs and how they were going to evolve. I was triggered by that because there’s some over-prediction going on in the industry. In my mind, this is more accurately described as the decade of agents. We have some very early agents that are extremely impressive and that I use daily—Claude and Codex and so on—but I still feel there’s so much work to be done. My reaction is we’ll be working with these things for a decade. They’re going to get better, and it’s going to be wonderful. I was just reacting to the timelines of the implication. […] Actually making it work. When you’re talking about an agent, or what the labs have in mind and maybe what I have in mind as well, you should think of it almost like an employee or an intern that you would hire to work with you. For example, you work with some employees here. When would you prefer to have an agent like Claude or Codex do that work? Currently, of course they can’t. What would it take for them to be able to do that? Why don’t you do it today? The reason you don’t do it today is because they just don’t work. They don’t have enough intelligence, they’re not multimodal enough, they can’t do computer use and all this stuff. They don’t do a lot of the things you’ve alluded to earlier. They don’t have continual learning. You can’t just tell them something and they’ll remember it. They’re cognitively lacking and it’s just not working. It will take about a decade to work through all of those issues.”

— 安德烈·卡帕西, Dwarkesh Podcast, 17.10.2025 ↗

译文

“你刚才提到的那句“这是智能体的十年”，其实是对之前一句话的回应。我不太确定是谁说的，但那句话暗示今年是“智能体之年”，说的是大语言模型以及它们将如何发展。这句话触动了我，因为业内存在一些过度预测。在我看来，更准确的说法是“智能体的十年”。 我们已经有了一些非常早期的智能体，它们非常惊艳，我每天都在用——Claude、Codex 等等——但我仍然觉得还有大量工作要做。我的反应是，我们会和这些东西一起工作十年。它们会越来越好，这会很美妙。我只是对那句话暗含的时间表作出反应。 […] 真正让它管用。当你谈论智能体时——实验室心里想的，或许也是我心里想的——你应该把它几乎看成一名你会雇来和你一起工作的员工或实习生。比如，你这里有一些员工。什么时候你会更愿意让 Claude 或 Codex 这样的智能体来做这些工作？ 现在它们当然做不到。要让它们做到需要什么？你今天为什么不这么做？你今天不这么做，是因为它们就是不管用。它们不够聪明，多模态能力不够，不会使用电脑，诸如此类。 你之前提到的很多事情它们都做不到。它们没有持续学习能力。你不能只告诉它们一件事就指望它们记住。它们在认知上有欠缺，就是不管用。要解决所有这些问题，大约需要十年。”