杰克·克拉克: “他们称之为奇点。我相信，今年我们已经获得了令人信服的证据，表明它现在已经开始。……我们应当预期，在未来几年里，不仅是 AI，整个科学的进步速度都将加快。这会让人感到困惑和迷失方向，它将带来巨大的财富，也可能带来巨大的危险。”

由 AI 翻译，经编辑部审校

原文

“For many years, researchers and science fiction authors have forecast a future in which AI systems drastically increase the pace of overall scientific and technical progress, making things move so quickly that it is hard for humans to keep up. They call this the singularity. I believe that this year we have gained convincing evidence that it has now begun. The writer Vernor Vinge forecast this in 1993. “When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress, that progress will be much more rapid. In fact, there seems no reason why progress itself would not involve the creation of still more intelligent entities -- on a still-shorter time scale,” he wrote, describing the singularity as “a point where our models must be discarded and a new reality rules.” The singularity is here. The implications reach across every aspect of life. But the most important implication is a simple one: we should expect that in the coming years, the whole pace of progress of not just AI, but science as a whole, will speed up. This will feel confusing and disorienting, and it will bring with it great wealth and potentially great peril.”

— 杰克·克拉克, Import AI 477, 17.10.2026 ↗

译文

“多年来，研究人员和科幻作家一直预言这样一个未来：AI 系统大幅加快整体科学和技术进步的速度，让一切发展得如此之快，以至于人类难以跟上。 他们称之为奇点。我相信，今年我们已经获得了令人信服的证据，表明它现在已经开始。 作家弗诺·文奇在 1993 年就预言了这一点。“当超越人类的智能推动进步时，进步将会快得多。事实上，似乎没有理由认为，进步本身不会包括创造出更加智能的实体——而且是在更短的时间尺度上，”他写道，并把奇点描述为“我们的模型必须被抛弃、一种新的现实开始主宰的时刻”。奇点已经到来。它的影响遍及生活的方方面面。但最重要的影响很简单：我们应当预期，在未来几年里，不仅是 AI，整个科学的进步速度都将加快。这会让人感到困惑和迷失方向，它将带来巨大的财富，也可能带来巨大的危险。”